出處: September 16, 2005 Wireless Week
Want to know more about the WLAN and WiMAX markets? Forward Concepts has just published "Beyond Wi-Fi: 802.11n, VoWi-Fi & WiMAX" that provides an analysis of worldwide equipment and chip markets. The report features detailed forecasts through 2009 of all market segments, including access points (APs) and base stations (WiMAX), network interface cards (NICs), wireless router gateways (WRGs) and the chipsets enabling the entire WLAN and WiMAX networks. Units, average selling prices (ASPs) and total revenue are forecast for every market segment.
"The growing WLAN market is a classic example of how a market can continue to expand as costs and prices ride down the learning curve, opening up new applications and market opportunities," says Carter L. Horney, author of the report. Specifically, in spite of a predicted 23-percent average selling price drop, worldwide shipments of WLAN equipment products will increase 6 percent to the $5.2 billion level in 2005.
The report also predicts that WLAN equipment will continue growing at a higher rate in 2006 to the $5.9 billion level as new IEEE 802.11n and VoWi-Fi equipment is introduced and the infrastructure for traditional Wi-Fi expands.
In the report, the WiMAX and pre-WiMAX equipment market (including both 802.16d and 802.16e) is forecast to grow from $72 million in 2005 to just over $2 billion in 2009, for an annual compound growth rate of 130 percent.
Horney went on to say, "We view WiMAX as complementary to both Wi-Fi and 3G cellular. Fixed 802.16d systems can provide backbones for Wi-Fi hot spots where DSL or cable is unavailable or impractical. When emerging 802.16e provides a mobility WiMAX capability, it will augment the Wi-Fi infrastructure that will remain dominant for several years."
Early views were that mobile WiMAX would be a threat to 3G, but now cellular equipment vendors such as Nokia are saying that WIMAX will be complementary. Preliminary analyses indicate that 802.16e data delivery costs can be significantly cheaper per megabyte than HSDPA or 1X EV-DO when provided as an overlay to a cellular network.
Pure WiMAX chipsets, beginning with 802.16d-compliant fixed-operation units, are beginning to ship this year and revenues are estimated to be $5.4 million. However, mobility-capable 802.16e chipsets will begin sampling next year and the combined chip market is forecast to grow at a 209 percent compound annual growth rate to $489 million in 2009.
